So progress on the PTRs marches forward, and the next major set of updates to the PTR imply that Icecrown Citadel will be open for testing soon…which also means that Arthas’ day of reckoning is close at hand. We know that 3.3 is going to be Wrath of the Lich King’s last major content patch, with maybe a only a few other minor events between 3.3 and Cataclysm.

Between that and the reports from Blizzcon earlier this year that the next expansion looks remarkably polished, and you just have to wonder: is Cataclysm closer than we think? Admittedly, to counter that argument there’s the fact that PTR testing is taking its sweet time, and we don’t have even the slightest indication that we’ll see 3.3 live in the immediate or near future. This and the fact that we know Blizzard hasn’t announced an alpha, much less a beta of Cataclysm, so as much as it might seem that it may be closer than we think, there are other signs that it’s pretty far off.

My guess? We’ll see it around the beginning of the holiday season next year – that would be about a year from now we’ll be eagerly placing our pre-orders and wondering if Collector’s Editions are sold out at major retailers, ahead of a November 2010 release. What about you? When are you betting Cataclysm will be hitting store shelves? Am I on the money or am I way too late?